TRENDCAST 2024 — The First Five TRENDS Rattling The Marketplace

It’s a fact… we operate in a very fluid marketplace that is constantly evolving and changing.

As we enter 2024… hold onto your seats…

Leading into each year, I post a set of market changes that are evolving right in front of us that will impact the marketplace, how people interact with one another and brand experiences, and the impact on the actual mechanics of the brand experiences.

Here are the 10 most significant trends that will impact our 2024 playing field…

1. The family bonding imperative
2. The rise of economic consciousness
3. Pre-owned is hot and new is not
4. Re-generation vs. sustainability
5. The re-engineering of healthcare
6. Mid-career Millennials
7. Technology addiction
8. AI reality check
9. Alpha Activation and Gen Z Isolation
10. The termination of the five day office week

Provided below is further background on the first five. Next post will showcase the second five.

#1 … The Family Bonding Imperative

More Millennials — the largest generational group ever present in the U.S. — are now married with kids than single and coupled.

More babies were born in the last quarter of 2022 and thus far in 2023 than any projections forecast.

More Baby Boomer grandparents are out there interacting with their Alpha grandkids today than any generational set of grandparents of the past.

Families today have evolved from the conventional illustration of mom, dad, a boy and a girl.

Holiday cards showcase diversity of what makes up a family unit.

The cover of a current issue of a large house and home magazine features two dads and their young son celebrating Christmas together.

Whether they are dogs or cats or even a turtle and a fish, pets today are considered family members.

The formation of families streams in real time.

However, a very horrific event took place in the Fall of 2023.

And while that horrific event took place in a remote part of the World, families globally watched online, on screen and through social media postings the horror in real time in which family members old and young and just born were massacred.

The conflict is senseless and emotionally sparking a need to draw closer with our own families.

The horror in Israel will drive the social, economic and cultural dynamics of 2024 forward.

Last year, we highlighted the come-back of family rooms.

SUVs now dominate the U.S. automotive market. Travel and tourism is now anchored around families. More swing sets and kid pools were sold last year than at any other time in the last 40 years.

The impact of Families on the marketplace and brands doing business will move in like a monsoon storm.

The U.S. Department of Labor Statistics issued a report in July of 2023 citing that the average time families are spending time together in the same room of the house together broke the records set in 2002 that further broke the records set back in the 1990s.

Just this past week, courts ruled that family units coming into the U.S. cannot be separated and processed. They must remain unified as a family.

The illustration of the members connecting with one another almost exclusively via smart phone is a mirage created by Wall Street, Madison Avenue, the Silicon Valley and Hollywood.

The interaction of families is becoming more high-touch and real time.

So much so that technology gets shoved to the sidelines.

If you are in business leadership, before you make any claim about the digital context of a family, go visit your nearest book store and check out the House & Home section of the news stand. Skim through the pictures and check out the articles. The Value of Families jumps off the pages!

LOL… check out if you see any pictures of family members interacting with a Smart Phone. I might put up a $20 bet that you will not find one unless its an ad for a digital phone service.

Brand experiences are shared and enhanced within family units. Family units provide the forum for the brand experiences.

In 2023 the Millennial context of “me” shifted to a Millennial context of “we.”

GenXers are watching their teens start dating and college kids start mating!

Only a few brands currently capture the Family in their emotionally-engaged brand communications and a couple who do it engage the audience on a much deeper level than just the visual of a family together.

Watch how the high touch products — books, record players, card games, cookie baking mixes, lawn games, restaurant community tables — rally together with families in 2024.

Shoot even television sets are coming back and many are abandoning the on-demand and digital networks because of high costs and switching back to ABC, NBC, CBS and PBS.

What took place in Israel is only a spark that is igniting a 2024 Trend already evolving… and brands not connecting will be left behind.

#2 … The Rise of Economic Consciousness

On the surface, the stats blur reality.

As I write this, the average household income in the U.S. has pushed upward to just under $115K … an increase of about 6% over the average household income posting in fourth quarter of 2022.

At least half of those posting salaries lower than $115K are single.

Camps that include business leadership, elected officials, community activists and cause-related volunteers believe that there is an expanding level of wealth.

When you sit on their discussions, you will hear statements like, “with those higher incomes, they can easily afford paying another 30% for the cost of our service or product offering.”

There are other sources who understand the mechanics of what is going on much better. Those sources are convinced that the next Great Recession will hit us the very next quarter of the year.

Let’s take a reality check journey…

Housing costs have continued their upward climb in 2023 and will continue in 2024.

Today, the average payment on a 30 year home loan in the U.S. is $2,824. And that is the average.

More than half of homeowners face a mortgage payment of $2,500+ and when you add in the real estate tax and insurance costs, the payments climb above $3,500+.

The average apartment in the U.S. now leases for $1,702 a month. And again, that is the average. One bedroom apartments average $1,574 a month and two bedrooms are averaging $1,948 a month.

More than one-out-of-every-four homeowners is paying $3,500+ per month for housing before real estate and home insurance costs are added to the mix.

The average real estate tax and home insurance in third quarter 2023 posts at $754.

On October 1st, AAA (“Triple A”) reported that the average new car payment in the U.S. is $792 and the average car payment on pre-owned cars is now $528.

Keep in mind that the average family of four owns two cars.

Money Magazine cites gas now accounts for 2.2% of gross income or just over $2,500 on average in the U.S. and that translates to just over $211 per month.

Utilities together that include heating, air conditioning, water, sewer and garbage pick-up posted at $448 per month in third quarter 2023.

The Economist reports that the average cost of food for a family of four in the U.S. is now pushing just over $21,300 a year and forecasts it climbing to more that $24,000 by third quarter of 2024.

The average household of four is paying nearly $900 a month to make the monthly amount due on the credit cards … in which the average household is pushing 78% of their credit limits on those cars.

So if we apply some simple mathematics, the average household is spending about $86,000 on house, car, tax, utilities, automotive, food and credit cards.

The average household is netting 75% take-home pay on a salary of $115,000 which, in turn, calculates out to $86,500 net household income.

Note that costs for items like academic loans and vacation travel are not added into the costs.

Many news networks are saying that Millennials are becoming the new political force in the 2024 Election Year and their awakening experience was ignited with their first real estate tax invoice.

Yes… the press rarely publishes reality facts about the debit side of the check books but it does not take a genius long to figure out that the income-cost model of the American household is driving a 2024 reality check.

Nielsen IQ cites the following emerging global trends driving Consumer Packaged Goods in 2024…

** More budgeting, value assessment and trade-offs

** More calculated spending complete with new Apps and financial service enhancements

** Private labels overtaking brand equity

We are already seeing it.

The level of luxury spending is declining. Large scale purchases are being reconsidered.

The sales of $40,000+ new cars is hitting automotive sales more than the supply-side impact of the labor strikes.

DIY is surging and there are some at Warner Bros. Discovery talking about bringing DIY-TV back on screen again.

As families gather in their family rooms to work on a puzzle or play cards or a board game is bonding time for the family but it is also driven by a new economic consciousness that will explode in 2024.

#3 … Pre-Owned is Hot and New is Not

Pre-own shopping started out for many as a catalyst to find a way to save some money. Whether through online savings or discount cards or loyalty programs, it was all to bring down the cost of the purchase.

Then pre-owned Antique and Junque fairs, festivals, stores and flea markets become the weekend get-away event that many planned ahead of time complete with mapping out the route from one sale to the next.

Groups emerged bonding around specific items like Delft China or Ceramic Cats and others around a specific style like Mid-Century or French Country.

Second-hand furniture sales are forecast to grow from $21 Billion in 2023 to $32 billion in 2028, an increase of 70%!

A survey conducted by Better Homes & Gardens found that 86% of total adults are now purchasing more pre-owned furniture than new furniture.

In recent blog post I cited how pre-owned homes are way hotter among Millennials than new ones because they come with mature landscaping.

In reality, only 15% or the homes sold thus far in 2023 have been new homes. But only 8% of Millennials in their 30s and just over 10% of Millennials in their early 40s purchased a new home in 2023.

Pre-owned cars are hotter than new cars.

Pre-owned cars are purchased more today because they are less costly and often better levels of inventory and supply, there are purchasers who value their vintage appeal.

And with that, welcome to 2024 and the roll-out of the new “circular economy.”

Shopping pre-owned is now environmentally responsible, socially conscious, even morally sound.

Yes… it does deliver savings, but the conscious dedication to a higher level of values will fuel it forward in 2024 and beyond.

In another past blog post, I cited the whole dynamic of what has been historically referred to as “vintage” clothing. While “vintage” clothing continues to gain more floor space in the the antique malls, the trend is evolving.

What will explore in 2024 are services like Stitch Fix where “members” receive customized clothing sets that they can wear for a month and then return for a new set from a vast inventory of “shared” clothing.

The second clothing market is expected to double in size in 2024… three times the past of the apparel market overall.

By 2025, second hand clothing is expected to reach $30 billion or 10% of all clothing sales in the U.S.

The left side of the brains know that dollars need to be conserved and stretched in current and upcoming economic times. Many believe that interest rates will remain high and the price of housing will continue to climb.

But the right side of the brain rallies around a combination of preservation, sustainability, environmental responsibility and social awareness.

Watch as we enter 2024 how many new retail and community gathering events will be fashioned around pre-owned products with terms like restored, re-purposed, re-asserted, renovated and recycled.

A TRENDCAST driven by ingenuity vs. abundance.

#4 … Regeneration vs. Sustainability

There is no question that this TRENDCAST is being totally driven by the Millennials with the Boomers quickly following from behind.

And this TRENDCAST is linked directly with TRENDCAST #3 where pre-owned is hot and new is not.

Regeneration is driven by two missions.

One is a mission to sharing, leasing, repairing, refurbishing and recycling existing materials as long as possible.

Another is a mission to not only restore, but to enhance and improve the productivity and quality of the product and experience.

As Millennials get deeper entrenched in the operational matrix of life around them — which will move full speed ahead in 2024 — they are driven to Do More (thanks in part to American Express advertising!).

The Millennial sense of empowerment is not coming from Washington, Madison Avenue, Wall Street or Hollywood.

However Washington, Madison Avenue, Wall Street and Hollywood certainly have functioned as catalysts in showcasing how sustaining a system vs. enhancing it leads to continued frustration.

Blogging and social media have also functioned as catalysts.

All an individual needs is a smart phone and they can craft content just as entertaining and engaging as a million dollar+ studio or politician in Washington who cannot even get a majority chair elected.

The prime catalyst is the Millennials purchasing a home and “making it their own” with nothing more than a pick up load of DIY goods purchased at Home Depot .

Another catalyst is the empowerment of making babies and Millennials serving as parents who through hybrid office time spend way more time with the kids.

When all boiled down, regeneration translates to taking action.

Watch how community groups add proactive steps in 2024.

Picking up trash will begin to include planting new flowers.

Donating food for the homeless will begin to include cooking a meal for the homeless.

Simply casting a vote for a politician will soon include a constraint requiring the politician to issue update reports showcasing actual actions taken in real time… not when up for election again!

Watch as more boards of corporations and non-profits in 2024 drop the use of “sustainable” and insert actual follow-up action steps to decrease occurrence of the need for their service.

If you do not believe that this is taking place, I encourage you to visit a nearby college campus and chat with students about what they plan to do with their majors.

Those missions of occupation delve much deeper than the duties of the job and the pay checks brought home.

One of the early indicators of the shift was the brand launch of Bombas socks back in 2013.

Founder Randy Goldberg and David Health learned that socks are the most requested clothing item in homeless shelter and launched a regeneration brand with a mission to donate one pair of socks for every one purchased.

Since then Bombas has posted year over year over year sales gains.

Watch as Brands jump on the regeneration bandwagon in 2024.

Patagonia is no longer just championing cotton clothing produced from cotton grown on organically, environmentally green farms, but is now reaching out and cultivating organic farming by channeling a portion of sales to an organic farming development program.

From General Mills to Whole Foods to PepsiCo to Land-of-Lakes to Hormel, brands run in large part by Millennials with eco-green passionate Boomer reliving their 1960s youth are not longer just championing environmental cause but taking action to positively correct and better the lands farmed.

I encourage dropping the world “sustainability” from any marketing copy. Its no longer the hippest thing to do!

#5 — The Re-engineering of Healthcare

Sometimes it takes a Hurricane to catapult change. Sometimes straining the piggy bank can catapult change too.

The U.S. healthcare delivery system is an obese, behemoth giant.

And it took the Pandemic to showcase just how behemoth the giant has gotten to be.

There are multiple factors reinventing healthcare… a post-Pandemic culture, aging Boomers and GenXers, family-creating Millennials, exploding costs, the integration of AI into diagnostics and long-term care, streaming health tracking systems, health insurance alternatives and the marriage of health & wellness with live-work-play.

The Healthcare premium for conventional healthcare insurance coverage increased nearly two times the rate that wages increased during the Pandemic 2020–2023.

In attempts to schedule a physician visit today may very likely net the earliest date for a visit 6–9 months out.

The average American family of four today pays an annual insurance premium over $21,000. Note, this does not include what the employer pays!

Just as the large, conglomerate malls are all but gone, hospitals and “medical centers” are entering a similar mode.

Why is the U.S. moving away from the gigantic, one-stop, from birth-to-death mega complexes?

According to national insurance stats, the average surgery performed at a hospital in the U.S. in 2023 cost $16,000. The same procedure performed at a same-day surgery center is $4,000.

As we now move into post-Pandemic times, according to the National Institute of Health and CNN, the average hospitals occupancy rate in 2023 is 42% … less than half of the beds are filled.

Hospital occupancy is low because an increased number of alternative, more efficient healthcare options now exist and treatment for healthcare needs can be accomplished outpatient than inpatient.

AI is also moving full force forward in healthcare assessment and treatment. So much so that human engagement between the patient, physicians and medical team is much more engaging than in the past.

Digital engagement for patient need assessment sky-rocketed during the Pandemic. Watch in 2024 as digital assessment moves into mainstream engagement for diagnostic care.

Already AI is used in the tracking and assessment of diabetes, cardiac, cancer, neurological and infectious disease.

Health wearables are forecast to more than triple in volume by 2025.

Wearable devises encompass a broad spectrum from diagnostic and monitoring devises like sleep and fitness trackers. Smart phone and smart watches tracking the steps one takes is simplistic compared to what will premiere in 2024.

Already basic core measurements like temperature, blood pressure, heart rhythm and glucose levels stream in real time.

But healthcare will not be contained in the conventional relationship dynamics of doctor-patient.

Individuals are taking over control of a system that is broke.

More individuals will engage in self-tracking health assessment and take direct steps in terms of dietary, sleep, exercise and mental management.

Thanks in part to digital apps… and thanks in part to peer endorsement and support groups.

Watch as membership programs surface that track and report health stats for a monthly membership fee.

Digital clicks on heart health websites are giving way to a search surge for websites addressing“gut health.”

In 2024, “gut health” will take center stage as a means of prevention and immune system enhancement.

Watch for a rise in diets and specialty “health enhancement” foods.

This past weekend, a front page story ran in the Wall Street Journal about how millet is entering the dietary mix given its ability to boost health.

Watch the Indie Cafes roll out new drink options in 2024 featuring coconut water, kombucha, pomegranate and beet juice.

Green drinks originating from kiwi, sea weed and green teas are red hot now and expected to expand into kids drinks in 2024.

And speaking of green… there are multiple sources noting that CBD sales will explode in 2024 reaching $20 billion+ in sales.

Employers too are taking over control of a system that is broke.

Watch in 2024 as more businesses and trade associations bypass insurance companies and create their own self-funded health and wellness systems.

TRENDCAST 2024 Trends #6 — #10

Trends #6 — #10 will be explored in depth in the next Blogpost due to be released no later than 11/15/2023.

That PHASE #2 TRENDCAST will explore…

• Mid-career Millennials
• Technology addiction
• AI reality check
• Alpha Activation and Gen Z Isolation
• The terminiation of the five day office week

I promise that those trends will get your head spinning too!

Business partners already are engaging me in roundtable think tanks, customers interviews, on-the-street market surveys and brand marketing strategy to capitalize on the 2024 TRENDCAST!

If any readers are interested in learning more about the impact of the Trends review here in the Blogpost, please do not hesitate to send me an Email at mkooyman@experiendiscovery.com or call me at 404.245.9378.